Cup draws can be arbitrary things. With most sporting organisations having an array of cup competitions to cater for differing levels, there will always be some form of luck as to whether a particular team is drawn in a higher or a lower cup. And the position of YMCA 3 and Merrion 3 in this year's Middle Cup is a case in point.
If either team had been drawn in the Senior 2 Cup, along with the rest of the Division 3 and 4 teams, then they would both be amongst the also rans - destined for a plucky defeat in the first round. But as it is, they are in the 2016 Middle Cup, taking their places as favourites, both fully expecting to advance to the final.
Luckily sport is not always quite like that, and below is our handy guide to the Middle Cup, which starts on Saturday 4th June, and finishes on Saturday 1st August in Kenure, the home of Rush Cricket Club.
Let us start with the already mentioned Merrion 3. Not only are they the second highest ranked team in the draw, they have also been given a home draw all the way to the final. And to top it all, they have won three of the last seven Middle Cups, as well as reaching the semi finals in 2013 and last year. It is really hard to seeing them being stopped, and the side that has the first opportunity is Rush 2. However much Rush will want to get to the final on their home ground, history is against them. Their last six games against Merrion have seen three wins, but they have all been against the lower Merrion 4. This looks like a banker for Merrion.
Malahide 3 would normally be amongst the favourites for the Middle Cup, and in fact won in only a few seasons ago (2013). They should put in a good stint at the cup coalface again, but do have the added complication of facing one of the competition's dark horses. Adamstown 1 are one of six Division 6 teams in the draw, and as such, have never played Malahide 3. They have however beaten Malahide 4 in their last two matches. Malahide to win, but not by much.
Mullingar 1 won the Intermediate Cup four times between 1977 and 1997, and when they moved up to the Middle Cup experienced more glory in 2000. That may appear distant, but may feel like yesterday compared to Terenure 2's last cup win - the Inter Cup in 1970. These two teams have a more recent history, with two league games in 2015 both being won convincingly by Mullingar. The Westmeath side should advance.
The final match in the top half of the draw could be a cracker. Railway Union 3 will make the 400 yard walk across Sandymount Green to play YMCA 3. YMCA should be the favourites - they are a Division 4 side as opposed to Railway's Division 6. But recent form points to a closer match - the last six matches between these two have been shared, and Railway got to the semi final in 2014, something that YM can only dream of. My money would be on YMCA, but if there is to be an upset, this will be the one. Railway to advance.
North County 3 are the only one of the 3rd teams in the draw not to have won the Middle Cup, and they have a tough first round draw if they are to break that duck. Clontarf 3 were runners up in 2015, and can also boast that they won both of their league encounters against North County in 2015. Division 5 (Clontarf) to overcome Division 6 (North County).
Leinster 3 have a proud record in cups. Unfortunately that record is on a now defunct format, and their dominance of the Junior Cup in the early 1930s doesn't count for much. They take on a Pembroke 3 team that should be closely matched (based on league position), but has a completely different cup record, winning the Middle Cup last year, to go with their 2011, 2002 and 1981 winning seasons. And to top it all, Leinster 3 have lost their last six matches against teams from Pembroke!
A clash of 1st teams will take place outside Navan, with Longford 1 travelling to take on Knockharley 1. Knockharley are 2-1 up in the team's three encounters; both teams have won two of their last four cup matches. It points to a close one, but Knockharley have home advantage, and will be in the quarter finals.
For all the expected dominance of Merrion 3, Merrion 4 experience the other end of the cup draw stick. Playing on the same day as their 3rds levels the playing field that larger clubs benefit from, and Merrion 4th's cup record is pretty mediocre, which is to be expected in this cup (if they were in the Middle 2 cup, they would be favourites). Twice they played Phoenix 3 last year, and twice they lost.
As you may have guessed from our intro, it is very difficult to look past Merrion 3 for the cup. They have home advantage all the way to the final, and look to have the weaker half of the draw. Mullingar 1 may well be Merrion's semi final opponents, whilst in the bottom half, the hunch is that the semi final will be between Clontarf 3 and Phoenix 3, with Phoenix 3 edging it - perhaps.