Four teams have dominated the latter stages of the Senior 2 Cup in recent years. Laois 1 have surprised many by retaining the trophy they won in 2015, and the Big 3 of Merrion 2, Clontarf 2 and YMCA 2 have fought through to the semi finals - before losing to Laois!
Of the twelve semi finalists in the last three seasons those four teams have contributed nine - Laois, Clontarf and Merrion two each, and YMCA thrice. The other semi finalists were Dundrum 1 in 2014, Greystones 1 in 2015 and North County in 2016. Not surprisingly it is difficult to look beyond those four teams for the 2017 Senior 2 Cup title.
The competition for teams in Divisions 3 and 4 is an open draw, which makes it impossible to judge exactly who will be able to plot a way to the final. But we will do our best to predict the quarter finalists, and from then on all we can do is guess.
Knockharley 1 make their debut in the Senior 2 Cup, and have been handed a draw that could have been harder. They have a home draw, and have also avoided the big four. However, all matches are tough once you step up to a higher level, and Phoenix 2 will be no exception. There are a few pointers that should bring optimism to Knockharley. Phoenix 2 have lost their last three cup matches, and Knockharley 1 have won their last five matches against Phoenix - although they were all against Phoenix 3. It should go the way of Phoenix, but an upset is not completely out of the question.
Perhaps it is just because the casual observer notices them more, but there seem to be an awful lot of cup derbies between The Hills and North County. The respective second teams meet again in this year's Senior 2 Cup, and there is very little between the teams. North County were relegated from Division 3 last year and The Hills 2 were promoted from Division 4, so this will be the one meeting in 2017. That pattern also emphasises that there is not much between them. Of the last eleven meetings, The Hills have won six, which is another stat suggesting a close game. Their last meeting on the Senior 2 Cup was back in 2012, when The Hills won by 33 runs, and we're predicting a similar resilt in 2017.
YMCA 2 may have been one of the stronger teams in this competition, but that doesn't disguise the fact that they have not won the Senior 2 Cup since 1991. At least they won in the 90s - they play a Leinster 2 side who have not won this competition since 1985. Everything points towards that 31 year losing stretch extending to 32 - YMCA have won five of the last seven matches between the teams, and it points to a Leinster 2 first round exit.
Clontarf 2 have to be amongst the favourites, and they have received a home draw against a Division 4 side - they really couldn't have asked for more. They play a Dundrum 1 side who they have beaten on each of the three times they have played. It is difficult to predict anything apart from another Clontarf 2 cup run.
Laois' 2017 season has been analysed long and hard. National Cup runners-up, Senior 2 Cup champions - and relegated in the league. So they enter this year's cup with a brilliant cup record in recent years, but as a Division 4 side. They have shared their last six meetings with their opponents - Malahide 3, and it should be a close game. Malahide's cup form is as bad as Laois' is good, and although it will be tempting to say that Laois' cup run must end, they may squeeze through the first round.
The final match sees a Park Avenue derby, with Railway Union 2 playing Pembroke 2 in a match that has been switched to Pembroke's Sydney Parade ground. That should be enough to tilt the balance in favour of Pembroke. Neither team has a great cup record; neither team really dominates the other. But someone has to win, and Pembroke should edge it .
Civil Service 1 and Merrion 2 both receive byes, and they will be part of the quarter final draw. The vagaries of the draw mean that there is no way of knowing who will advance - YMCA could be drawn against Clontarf for instance. But it is difficult to see Clontarf 2, Merrion 2 and YMCA 2 not making it to the semis, and if there is to be one other apart from Laois, perhaps Phoenix 2 will make it?
And with the final being held in Clontarf, we think Tarf 2 may win their fifth title in the last ten years.