RSA Division 3
2013 Champion - Cork County 1
Predicted 2013 Champion - Cork County 1
2011-13 Top run scorer: Vijay Gopal (Clontarf) 953 runs at 35.30
2011-13 Top wicket taker: Duane Harper (Balbriggan) 45 wickets at 11.16
For those of you who have the misfortune to read through all eleven divisional previews so far, you will have realised that all there is to go on are historical facts. There is not too much room for the heart in these predictions - just trying to predict how past behaviour will affect future performance - Bayesian statistics for anyone who cares.
But by the time I got to Division 3, there is room for a bit more emotion. The facts are there, but for a variety of reasons, they don't tell the full story. The heart needs to get involved a bit more.
There are three first teams in Division 3 this year, and it is fair to say that none of them have a particular good record at this level. Since 1991, 1st teams from Rush, Balbriggan and Cork County have all won this division, but Civil Service, Laois and North Kildare have not come close.
Civil Service 1 were probably too good to be relegated from Division 3 in 2012, and made a pretty good fist of promotion last year, finishing second to run away leaders North Kildare. Although the heart says that they will push for mid-table solidity, the stats tell a different story, and of the seven opponents, it is only The Hills 2 of whom Civil Service have a winning record. As much as I hope to be proved wrong, it could be another relegation season for Service.
North Kildare 1 were mightily impressive last year. They didn't rely on any one player, were well drilled, and won the league at a canter. Can it be repeated? Well promotion again is unlikely, and unfortunately, like Civil Service, they don't have a great record against the other teams. It would be great for Leinster cricket for them to have a good season, and we think they may just avoid the drop. The matches against Civil Service and North County especially will be crucial.
Laois 1 are the last of the 1st team triumvirate. They were 5th last year, and although once again they don't have a great record against others, they should be able to do something similar to 2013 - perhaps even improving a place to 4th. Interestingly, they were of course promoted as Division 4 champions in 2012, showing that North Kildare and Civil Service should be able to do the same.
The rest of the divison is made up of 2nd teams. North County last won this league (when it was Senior 2) back in 2006, when the club was at the height of its powers. Things have fallen away somewhat since that peak, and a 7th place for County last season gave a taste of what may happen again this year. They have bad records against all the other second teams (as well as Laois), and as was mentioned above, the matches against Civil Service and North Kildare will determine whether they will be relegated.
The Hills 2 have been pretty solid in recent seasons, winning Senior 2 in 2009. Their 1st team is of such quality that there will always be someone to booster the 2nds. However, The Hills' 3rd team don't proved the same quality from below, which will mean for now that the team cannot challenge for honours. 5th place should be within their grasp though.
That leaves the top half of the table, and a couple of choices which the heart and head have had a battle. Laois 1 don't have a great record in Division 3 (as has been discussed above). They only have a decent record against Civil Service and North County. But there is always at least one team who performs better than expectations. The squad looks a little stronger than last year, with Armand Smit returning after two years away. They may just improve on last year's 5th with a 4th place.
Leinster 2 have been the most successful team by far with five Division 3/Senior 2 titles in the last 15 years. Their record says that they have a great record against nearly everyone in the division. But the stats lie. Leinster won the league back in 2011, beating most of those teams in Division 3 now. But the two years in Divison 2 left something of an imprint on the Rathmines psyche. However they have also not become a bad team suddenly, and should be able to hold their own - perhaps with a 3rd place.
YMCA 2 have slowly been regaining a position they would see as rightfully theirs. It has been a long time coming though, 2013 was only YM's second season in the third tier since they came bottom in 2000. So there is no historical reason why we should expect a good season for YM. But the club is pretty strong, and many of their opponents don't look as if they will be able to dominate. Even the arrival of Tom Fisher will allow another player from the 1st team squad to appear for the 2nds. First place will be above them, but it is possible that YMCA could come 2nd - which would be their best finish in a very long time - possibly ever?
That just leaves Clontarf 2. The head says that they should be a mid-table team. But in the face of no one to challenge, and with a crop of youth who should find this level to their liking (Collier, Andrew and David Delany, Craig etc) they may well go all the way to the Division 3 title.
North County play Laois and Leinster host Clontarf this weekend.