Club cricket can be a difficult beast to predict. There are hundreds of factors that go into how well any given side will perform come the summer - and most important of all is probably, will the side actually play well!?
Last year's Middle 2 Cup predictions are a case in point (read the "predictions" here). There were a sure fire five teams that had a good chance of winning the competition - and the winners Adamstown 1 weren't even one of those. The rapid improvements that Adamstown have made as a club, caught us out.
So what factors go in to the predictions made in these previews? There are five in all.
1. Position in the league structure. In over 99% of cases in the 2015 league structure, a team that is in a higher division, finished 2014 in a higher league position than those in a lower division. The higher the division, the better the team were at the end of 2014
2. Cup history. Some teams have a trophy laden history, with groaning cabinets. Others have never had the experience of the thrill of a cup final win. However, we're not sure what the relevance of a 1927 Junior Cup win would have on 2015, so this should be treated with some caution!
3. Recent cup form. At the moment, some clubs just don't perform very well in cups. Others clubs can win a cup even if their league form is abysmal. Clontarf are a good example - especially their 1st team. They are the pre-eminent cup team of the last 50 years (seven senior cups in 15 seasons) , but "only" three league titles in the same time period.
4. Form against their first round opponents. A team needs to win four matches to lift the trophy, but if they can't win their first match they're not going anywhere! If a team hasn't beaten its first round opponents in the last five attempts, there is a good chance they won't be embarking on a cup run.
5. The X factor. Is a club improving on (and maybe off) the pitch? Are there any major player movements? Has there been a re-organisation in the club?
So with all that in mind, here are our thoughts on the 2015 Middle 2 Cup, the fourth tier Cup in Cricket Leinster. Adamstown 1 were the 2014 Champions, beating Clontarf 4 in the final by 4 wickets, thanks to Paul O'Boyle's 68. They have been promoted to the Middle Cup, so who will take their place as Middle 2 Cup Champions?
The top quarter of the draw provides four teams who are well matched, and as such, we wouldn't recommend using our tips! Fellow Division 7 sides Merrion 5 and North Kildare 2 clash in Anglesea Road, in a tie that could go either way. Merrion 5 won this competition in 2011 (the only 5th team to ever win it). Since then cup wins have been hard to come by, in fact their only win since 2011 was over Leinster 4 in 2012, when the scores in the match finished level. North Kildare 2 have only tasted cup glory once - the 1990 Intermediate Cup, and have only won one of their last four matches in this competition. So both teams have poor cup form, and their recent clashes are shared 2-2 (although the last time they met was in 2012). Two well matches teams, who won't be lifting the trophy, but home advantage may mean Merrion sneak through.
Avid followers of the YMCA twitter account will know that these predictions constantly write off the chances of some YMCA teams. So without trying to be prejudicial, here are the facts. YMCA 4 have a rich cup history, with seven cup wins, including four in the Inter Cup (1987, 1988, 2002 and last year). They were also losing semi finalists in the 2012 Intermediate Cup. This is their first year in the Middle 2 Cup. Their opponents have not faired too much better. Wicklow County have not won a cup under their current incarnation. Their last cup tie win was a Senior 2 Cup victory over Malahide 3 back in 2011, and they have been knocked out in the Middle 2 Cup first round in the last two years. So, so far not too much to go on. How about their recent confrontations? The two sides met twice in the league last year, with Wicklow County winning both matches by 47 runs and 6 wickets!
The second quarter of the draw has at least one team who have realistic pretensions of winning the Middle 2 Cup, and maybe two.
Knockharley 2 have a great cup record - but in the Junior Cup which is two rungs down the ladder. They won it in 2011 and were losing semi finalists in 2012. Since then, they have lost in the first round of the Inter Cup each tyear, and this represents yet another step up. They will play fellow Division 8 side Civil Service 2, who have not won a cup since the 1943 Junior Cup! Civil Service have a poor record in the higher Middle Cup (2011) and the Inter Cup (2012 and 2014), but in their one season in this competition (2013), they got to the final, where they lost to Clontarf 4. The two matches against Knockharley 2 in 2014 were shared, and this one could go either way.
Dundrum 2 are (along with Clontarf 4) one of the giants of the recent Middle 2 Cup. Since 2011, they are 10-3, and were Champions in 2012, and losing semi finalists in 2013 and 2014. The second half of 2014 was a tough period for the Dundrum club, and after domminating Wexford Wanderers in recent years, they lost their match last July. That was in Wexford though, and the Wanderers may struggle playing Dundrum in Wesley College. Although they won the Middle 2 Cup in 2002, their last cup victory was over Leinster 4 in the 2011 first round.
The bottom half of the draw starts with a Balbriggan 2 side who have not lifted a cup since the 1990 Junior Cup. They have a much better recent cup record than that suggests, and in this competition were losing semi finalists in both 2012 and 2014 - losing to one of the big two (Dundrum 2 and Clontarf 4) each time. Bagenalstown 1's cup form hasn't been great. They were losing quarter finalists in 2012, but that is slim pickings for a team that has been ever present in the Middle 2 Cup for the last five seasons. Bagenalstown twice lost heavily to Balbriggan in 2013, but bounced back well to tie a match in the cup last season (losing on fewer wickets lost). Balbriggan should advance though.
They will play the winner of an intriguing tie, as Pembroke 4 travel to Laois 2. When Laois 2 beat Merrion 5 in last year's Middle 2 Cup, it was their only cup win since 2010. That compares with a Pembroke 4 team who won this title in 2013, and decent form since. They were runners up in 2011, losing semi finalists in 2012 and 2013 and losing quarter finalists last year. But the crucial factor is that the sides played twice last year, and Pembroke lost both matches heavily. Laois 2 to advance.
Leinster 4 have a creaking trophy cabinet. Twice winners of the Middle Cup; five times winners of the Junior Cup; four times winners of the Minor Cup; winners of the 1979 Inter Cup; and winners of this tournament in 2007. Unfortunately their recent cup record can only be described as brutal, losing in the first round every year since 2011. And for Leinster it gets worse. They host a Clontarf 4 who have pretty much dominated the Middle 2 Cup in recent years. Losing semi finalists in 2011, runners up in 2012 and 2014 and winners in 2013. No surprises in this one.
The winners of this tie will play Castleknock 1 in the quarter final, who had a bye. Castleknock were the losing semi finalists in the 2011 Middle 2 Cup, and despite being in the Middle Cup ever since, had a decent record (losing int he final in 2013). They will provide tough opponents, and depsite never having played a match against a team from Leinster or Clontarf, will fancy a shock in the quarter final.
Our tips for the semi finals are.....Wicklow County 1, Dundrum 2, Balbriggan 2 and Castleknock 1, with Dundrum 2 picking up another Middle 2 Cup title.