Division 8
2014 Champion - Leinster 4 (predicted "7th or 8th")
2014 Champion predicted - Dundalk 1 (8th)
2011-14 Top run scorer: Nicky Fusco (Wicklow County, 2011-14) 1022 @ 35.24
2011-14 Top wicket taker: Ali Qasim (Balbriggan, 2011-12) 44 @ 11.70
If we trumpet the accomplishment of a successful prediction (see the Division 9 preview), it is only fair to make a note when our predictions are massively incorrect. We thought Dundalk 1 had a good chance of winning Division 8 in 2014 - in fact they came bottom. And Leinster 4 looked like no hopers - which made their eventual title all the more embarrassing.
Bearing that in mind, here are our predictions for 2015!
There are four 4th teams, two 2nd teams and two 1st teams in Division 8 this year, so we will look at them in those groupings.
Bagenalstown 1 and Wicklow County 1 are fighting for the honour of being the 28th best 1st team in the province. Bagenalstown have added a 3rd team this year, and the club's numbers are growing. However, there needs to be a bit more success on the pitch. Their league position has slipped every year for the last four seasons, and their 63rd place overall in 2014 equates to 7th place in Division 8 in 2015. They have losing records against everyone else - apart from Civil Service 2 (1-0) and Trinity 2 (who they haven't played). We think they are going to end up with a similar position to last year - perhaps 8th.
If Bagenalstown finish 8th, Wicklow County 1 will indeed be the 28th best first team. The matches between the two will be crucial, and it looks like these two could be battling over the bottom spots. Last year, the Bray team finished one place below Bagenalstown, but the saving grace is that they have a better record against many of the other teams. Whoever comes best out of the two matches between Wicklow County and Bagenalstown will come 7th - we think it may be Wicklow County.
The 2nd team mini-championship will see the four teams squabbling over being the 16th to 19th ranked second teams. Along with the other teams in the club, Knockharley 2 have made massive improvements recently. They were 83rd in 2011 (a Division 11 team), but in four seasons, have moved up three divisions. Their finish last year was 61st - equivalent to 5th place this year. In a closely fought league, they may struggle to improve too much on that, but a 5th spot looks to be the worst that they will do.
Dublin University 2 are always a really difficult team to predict. The cyclical nature of undergraduate cricket means the form of teams can go up and down rapidly. Only playing the seven games in the season helps, and the fact they came 57th in the ladder last year points to a very high finish. That is 1st in the 2015 version of events, and at the risk of being made to look very stupid (again), we think they may match their 2014 finish and take the 2015 title.
Civil Service 2nd's history makes for an interesting read if you have a spare few minutes. The club decided to re-organise in 2011/12, so after being 43rd in 2011, they dropped to 67th in 2012. Since then they have been moving in the right direction, and last year finished 60th. They have found it easy playing some of the "stronger teams" in the league (being unbeaten against Balbriggan, Trinity and Leinster). We're predicting a one place improvement, and 3rd this year.
The final 2nd team is Balbriggan 2. They don't have much playing experience against many of the sides in the league, so we need to take notice of their recent history instead. They improved from 2011-2013 before slipping back last year to 58th - which was 2012's finishing position. Even with that slippage, they are slated to finish 2nd place, and so that is what we will go with.
Finally, we look at the two fourth teams - vying for 5th and 6th on the 4th team honours board. Leinster 4 are the reigning Division 8 champions, and we'll be honest that after being proved so wrong with our prediction last year, it really doesn't matter what we say now. But last year's win had something of the surprise factor about it, and they may sink back down the table.Last year's 59th place is the same as this year's 3rd in Division 8, but there may be a few more places to drop. Perhaps 6th.
That just leaves YMCA 4. They are a team going very much in the right direction, improving by an average of three league places every year since 2011. That may be a bit much to ask again, but a two place improvement on last year will being YMCA 4 up to 4th spot, which seems about right.
The first game of the season gives Leinster 4 a chance to prove us wrong, as they host Balbriggan 2 on April 26th.